This one feels like a test.
The Lions kicked off the year with what looked to be a massive upset, toppling the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead.
Since then, the Chiefs have played well enough to win, but they hardly look like the Chiefs of old.
As for the Lions? Well, they lost to the Seahawks in a 37-31 barnburner, but then did what good teams are supposed to do: rally and win games they’re supposed to win. And over the last four weeks, the Lions have done just that.
They have won the games they’re supposed to win, and they’ve done so in dominant fashion, outscoring the Falcons, Packers, Panthers, and Bucs by a 116-56 margin, and frankly, it hasn’t been that close.
This week? That aforementioned test against the Baltimore Ravens, in Baltimore.
Now the Ravens aren’t as scary as they’ve been in years past, but … well, they’re still the John Harbaugh-Lamar Jackson Ravens, and the sportsbooks still think they’re the better team, as evidenced by the 3-point line. (Best price for the Lions at -110 is currently available at FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars.)
Moneyline odds put the Lions as +135 dogs at Caesars. The game total can be bet using 42 on the over (-110 at Caesars) or under 43 (-110 at DraftKings).
Player props were thin as of Thursday morning on the Lions side, likely due to questions surrounding the running back situation. David Montgomery is almost certainly out, Jahmyr Gibbs is almost certainly in, and Craig Reynolds is a certain question mark due to injured hamstring.
Worth noting: When Montgomery missed Game 3 this year, Gibbs stepped in with 18 touches compared to Reynolds’ four. When the props get listed, and if Gibbs is a full go, there might be a lot of value there.
Another potential place to look for value is in a single-game parlay surrounding Jameson Williams. Cribbing this from betting analyst Pat Mayo, and it’s a smart one: Bet under on his catches, over on his yards. Williams only had three targets last week, but one of them went for 45 yards and a score. It’s an uncorrelated gamble, this idea, but there is merit.
Meanwhile, Jared Goff’s yardage prop is posted, with FanDuel using an over of 249.5 at -114 and BetMGM setting 252.5 with -115 on the under. Much has been made over the years about Goff’s home/road splits — and his small hands — but Baltimore weather Sunday looks serviceable, with sunny skies and mid-60s weather in breezy conditions.
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