And now, things are getting serious.
The Lions went out to Los Angeles and won a barnburner against the Chargers last weekend, escaping with a 41-38 victory. They ran all over the Chargers defense. They passed all over the Chargers defense. They got destroyed by the Chargers offense, but, you know, you can’t have it all.
Bottom line: The Lions offense is really good. And if they can somehow secure the number one seed in the NFC and get to play their playoff games at Ford Field, their current odds to win the NFC (+550 at BetMGM) and the Super Bowl (+1400 at PointsBet) might end up looking like bargain basement prices at America’s sportsbooks.
If anything, those sportsbooks might be tightening up those odds in the weeks to come, as the Lions’ next five games on the schedule aren’t exactly imposing: This week, home against the Bears, then a home Thanksgiving game against the Packers. After a 10-day break, it’s off to New Orleans and Chicago, and then back home against the Broncos. Truly, the game at Chicago — in what will undoubtedly be cold weather — is the only dangerous setup right now.
Hence, don’t be surprised if the Lions are 12-2 heading into the last three weeks of the season, which include a home-and-home against the Vikings with a trip to Dallas in between.
In the meantime, it’s the Bears this week, and the expected return of Justin Fields to complicate things a bit for the Lions.
Nonetheless, Detroit is heavily favored in this match-up, with the books setting it at Lions -7.5. It did open at -8.5, but with the news that Fields is expected to play for the Bears, the line dropped a bit.
Moneyline-wise, the best right now is at DraftKings, which is offering the Lions at -375. The books are expecting some decent offense here, with the total set at a healthy (especially for 2023) 47.5 on the over at -115 at FanDuel, while DraftKings is offering under 48 at -105.
Jared Goff’s passing yardage prop is set as low as 265.5 (at -120 at PointsBet) and as high as 274.5 (the under at BetMGM at -115.)
While the Bears are pretty good against the run — they’re only giving up 76 yards on the ground per game, good for second in the NFL — both Jahmyr Gibbs’ and David Montgomery’s rushing yardage props feel too low. Gibbs is at 40.5, while Montgomery is at 50.5. They’re at -120 and -115 on the over, respectively, at BetMGM.
Notably, Montgomery and Gibbs are both plus-money right now at Caesars Sportsbook — +110 and +130 — to score a touchdown. They both found paydirt last week, and if one of them gets in the box, it’s a profitable day at the office.
The books also expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to get fed often, posting his receiving yardage number at a whopping 86.5. It’s -115 on either side at Caesars.
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