At this point, it’s probably worth investigating the +850 prop DraftKings has on the Lions going winless this year.
Of course, you could just grab them at -105 to have the worst record in the NFL, but what fun is that? Right now, at 0-6 and headed to Los Angeles to face (read: lose to) the Rams (more on that in a moment), the +850 price might be worth a shot in the dark, especially if you bleed the blue and silver and need something to salvage this lost season.
After the Rams, the Lions host the Eagles, and then visit the Steelers and Browns.
They will not be favorites in any of these games.
From there, they host the Bears and Vikings. Depending on which direction the Bears are going, that might be their best shot yet to claim a W.
After that, they head to Denver, host the Cardinals, travel to Atlanta and Seattle, and close out the year with a home tilt against the Packers.
Not only are the Lions the only winless team left in the NFL (0-6), they also have the 4th toughest schedule remaining (.569 opponent win pct).
Including:
Week 7 @ Rams
Week 10 @ Steelers
Week 11 @ Browns
Week 15 vs Cardinals
Week 17 @ Seahawks
Week 18 vs Packers pic.twitter.com/eihztO1dXC— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 19, 2021
Legitimately, there is a very real path to 0-17. The +850 might be a bargain.
But enough about the far future. Let’s concentrate on the immediate future, where Jared Goff is headed back to L.A. and where the sportsbooks find it very likely he will leave a bruised and battered man.
Odds are against a win
The Lions are +825 underdogs at BetMGM at the time of this writing, which is way off the consensus +700.
The spread? It’s at 15.5 points, and the Lions can be had for +100 on FanDuel, whereas it’s -110 everywhere else.
Can the Lions somehow find a way to upset the Rams?
Well, any given Sunday and all, so why not? To do so, however, would take everything breaking the right way, and that starts with Goff somehow finding a way to lead this team to some first half points. As explored here last week, the Lions don’t score in the first half, and they didn’t score again last week in the first 30 minutes. On the season, the team has scored 33 first-half points. That’s 5.5 points a game, for those keeping score at home. Eeeesh, indeed.
One item the Lions have going for them this week is their two best playmakers, D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, are in not terrible matchups, with the Rams linebacker corps being ranked 30th by PFF entering the season. In theory, Goff should be able to find these two open for short passes in the middle of the field.
In theory.
After that, things get thin fast, as generally speaking, the Rams have a very good defense, although the numbers don’t exactly play that out, with middling ranks in rushing and passing yards allowed.
On the other side of the ball … well, look out. Matthew Stafford revenge narrative notwithstanding, the Rams offense should be able to do to the Lions what they’ve done to virtually everyone else they’ve played against this year, namely: whatever they want.
Meanwhile in props-ville
Props-wise, if you want to continue to play into the Lions first-half woes, you could bet them for under 7.5 points in the first half at -115 on DraftKings.
If you want to zig where everyone is zagging, the Lions are +190 on FOX Bet to score first.
As for individual players, both Swift and Hockenson’s receiving yardage props look semi-attackable. Swift is sitting at 43.5, and the over can be had for -115 at BetMGM. Hockenson is at 48.5, and that one is at -110 at BetMGM.
But perhaps the best bet of the day is the under of all of Goff’s props in his L.A. homecoming. Why? There is a reasonable chance if he lays another first half egg, he’ll be replaced heading into the second half. Remember: Dan Campbell specifically called out Goff after last week’s loss to the Bengals, saying his quarterback “needs to step up more than he has.”
"I feel like he needs to step up more than he has."
Lions coach Dan Campbell on Jared Goff. pic.twitter.com/hkbG3RkqQj
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) October 17, 2021
Some of Goff’s under props include passing yards, under 268.5 at Caesars and DraftKings, under 38.5 pass attempts at -105 at DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM, and under 25.5 completions at the same three books.
Well, at least Sam Howell and Matt Corral will be available in the 2022 NFL draft.
Photo: David Reginek/USA TODAY
